A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
